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'Limit overshoot, peak, decline': A new global goal for climate change?

Al Jazeera

The signing of the Paris Agreement by 200 countries in 2015 was a rare moment of global unity, and the euphoria was real. To cheers and tears, the international climate treaty was approved by nearly every country in the world. Fundamental to the agreement was a commitment to keeping temperatures from rising beyond 1.5C (2.7F) above the pre-industrial levels of the mid 19th-century. But 11 years on, it is evident that the Earth is soon going to exceed that threshold because of the continued record burning of fossil fuels. A report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in Nairobi, Kenya - called Limiting Overshoot - has found that even under the most optimistic scenario, the Earth will heat up by 1.8C (3.2F) above pre-industrial levels.


New Report Finds Efforts to Slow Climate Change Are Working--Just Not Fast Enough

WIRED

By virtually every key metric, efforts to fight climate change are going too slowly, according to findings by a coalition of climate groups. In some cases, things are moving in the wrong direction. An eroded iceberg is seen is seen floating near Horseshoe Island, Antarctica. In the 10 years since the signing of the Paris Agreement, the backbone of international climate action, humanity has made impressive progress. Renewable energy is increasingly cheap and reliable, while electric vehicles are becoming better every year.


AI 'carries risks' but will help tackle global heating, says UN's climate chief

The Guardian

'Done properly, AI releases human capacity,' Simon Stiell said. 'Done properly, AI releases human capacity,' Simon Stiell said. AI'carries risks' but will help tackle global heating, says UN's climate chief Mon 22 Sep 2025 15.54 EDTLast modified on Mon 22 Sep 2025 16.04 EDT Harnessing artificial intelligence will help the world to tackle the climate crisis, but governments must step in to regulate the technology, the UN's climate chief has said. AI is being used to make energy systems more efficient, and to develop tools to reduce carbon from industrial processes. The UN is also using AI as an aid to climate diplomacy.


The Woman Daring Us to Build a World Without Oil and Coal

Mother Jones

The United States is on the brink of its most consequential transformation since the New Deal. Read more about what it takes to decarbonize the economy, and what stands in the way, here. This story was originally published by Hakai Magazine and is reproduced here as part of our Climate Desk collaboration. Imagination is a powerful thing. Mary Shelley predicted organ transplantation in her novel Frankenstein, published in 1818.


Artificial intelligence could reveal climate change's tipping points, act like early warning system

Daily Mail - Science & tech

A number of experts believe the Earth is rapidly approaching its'tipping point' for reversing climate change, but researchers at Canada's University of Waterloo are creating artificial intelligence that could act as an'early warning system' against a runway threat to the planet. The deep learning algorithm was created to better predict the tipping points, while also understanding what happens after they have been reached, the study's co-author, Chris Bauch, a professor of applied mathematics at the University of Waterloo, said. 'Many of these tipping points are undesirable, and we'd like to prevent them if we can,' Bauch said in a statement. Canadian researchers are creating AI that could act as an'early warning system' against runway climate change. In May, scientists said there was a 40 percent chance that annual temperature rises would go beyond the the 1.5C (2.7F) set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.


High-density population and displacement in Bangladesh

Science

Among the many adverse impacts of climate change in the most vulnerable countries, climate change–induced displacement increasingly caused by extreme weather events is a serious concern, particularly in densely populated Asian countries. Reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) project a grim picture for South Asia, the most populous region on Earth, home to about one-quarter of global population, with the highest poverty incidence. A combination of poor socioeconomic indicators and increased frequency and intensity of cyclones and floods renders the region extremely vulnerable. Meanwhile, slow-onset climate hazards, such as sea level rise, salinity intrusion, water stress, and crop failures gradually turn into larger disasters. Within South Asia, Bangladesh stands as the most vulnerable: 4.1 million people were displaced as a result of climate disasters in 2019 (2.5% of the population), 13.3 million people could be displaced by climate change by 2050, and 18% of its coastland will remain inundated by 2080 ([ 1 ][1]). We describe how, faced with such natural and human-made adversities, Bangladesh can stand as a model of disaster management, adaptation, and resilience. The Paris Agreement goal of keeping the temperature rise at 1.5°C or well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial times may not be achieved, given the lack of ambitious mitigation. As a result, the number of people estimated to be displaced by slow-onset events will stand at ∼22.5 million by 2030 and ∼34.4 million by 2050 ([ 2 ][2]). A combination of sudden and slow-onset climate events, which affect all elements of the environment, becomes the main driver of environmental displacement. Migration is an adaptation strategy. An estimated half a million people move to Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, each year. Migration of this magnitude presents a challenge for Bangladesh given its small land area (147,570 km2) and high population density (∼1100/km2). There is simply little space for retreat: Bangladesh's population is half that of the United States, living on ∼1.5% of the land area of the United States. Usually, three pathways can be discerned with respect to how displaced people are settled: autonomous relocation by displaced individuals (without much government support), government-supported temporary settlement, and planned relocation. In Bangladesh, the first option overwhelms, followed by efforts for temporary settlement, until the government rehabilitates their former residences. Planned relocation or managed retreat in response to climate change ([ 3 ][3]) is not yet happening widely because of space and resource constraints. ![Figure][4] Building migrant-friendly, climate-resilient cities in Bangladesh The map shows some activities being undertaken to build migrant-friendly and climate-resilient cities in Bangladesh. Descriptions of activities are based on publicly available information about the programs, and on discussions with representatives of the NGO BRAC. GRAPHIC: N. DESAI/ SCIENCE Since the founding of Bangladesh in 1971, and even earlier in Pakistan, government-planned relocation of people displaced by riverbank erosion has fueled ethnic conflicts in the Chittagong Hill Tracts in the southeast part of the country, because the move was not backed by consultations with tribal communities. About 100,000 of more than a million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, fleeing persecution in Myanmar, are being relocated to Bhasan Char, an island in the Bay of Bengal. In land-hungry Bangladesh, most of the 30+ such Chars/mudflats in the bay are already inhabited at different degrees by people displaced by riverbank erosion and climate change. Despite these odds, Bangladesh is a leader in economic growth among developing countries and in mainstreaming climate change into its development strategy. Partially in response to scientific findings, the National Strategy on the Management of Disaster and Climate Induced Internal Displacement (N SMDCIID) adopted in 2015 incorporated disaster risk reduction and rights-based approaches, so that vulnerable communities can enjoy their basic rights to livelihood, food, health, and housing. The Strategy is built on an integrated Displacement Management Framework, in line with the migration management cycle of the International Organization of Migration (IOM). This Framework elaborates responses during the three phases of mobility management: pre-displacement [disaster risk reduction (DRR)], displacement (emergency), and post-displacement (rehabilitation/relocation). Under the Strategy, the government has initiated support for livelihood opportunities, housing, and human development of displaced people in vulnerable hotspots. It is likely that the government-supported community mobilization and disaster management and DRR policies, both before and after adoption of this Strategy, were helpful in lessening the number of casualties from the supercyclone Amphan in May 2020. One way to address displacements under increasing urbanization across the world could be the establishment of peri-urban growth centers and transformation of cities and towns to be migrant-friendly. This option appears practicable for populous countries such as Bangladesh, having little space for retreat from vulnerable hotspots. To achieve this, institutional changes in a city need to be fostered by research, planning, design, and capacity building. Examples from cities such as Durban, Quito, Semarang, and Malé indicate that cities may need to develop general as well as sector-based strategies to manage effective climate change adaptation ([ 4 ][5]). This warrants the linking of adaptation planning and implementation to city priorities. Cities must have access to reliable information and opportunities to share experiences through local, regional, national, and international networks ([ 4 ][5]). National and local governments should develop migrant-friendly plans along three lines: building of resilient hardware, such as low-cost housing, industries for employment generation, and other infrastructure; software, such as legal, policy, and institutional frameworks; and “heart-ware”—the promotion of awareness, reflecting values and ethics. The basic parameters for safe and orderly movement for migrants are to ensure employment, social protection, access to education, housing, health services, utilities, etc. Although government support is important, engagement of the private sector, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), civil society, and university-led research can strengthen municipal adaptation efforts. This is what the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) in Bangladesh has been doing—to facilitate the transformation of smaller peripheral towns to be migrant-friendly as a climate adaptation strategy (see the figure). Our work has multiple purposes: to shift the tide of migration away from Dhaka and other large cities toward smaller towns, and to decentralize climate-resilient development and facilitate planning for basic services and amenities. In Bangladesh, a majority of those displaced by climate change prefer non-migration from their ancestral roots ([ 5 ][6]) if they are provided support for improving their livelihood, housing, etc. Settlement of displaced people in a town nearer to their ancestral home allows them to maintain psychological kinship and cultural comforts. On the basis of such local context and needs, each migrant-friendly town needs its own development and adaptation plans to address climate risks and economic opportunities. The NGO BRAC has initially identified about 20 towns and municipalities, considering their economic potential and climate stress, to determine whether they can absorb a sizeable number of displaced people. A number of satellite towns adjacent to economic hubs, such as relatively elevated sea and river ports and export processing zones (EPZs), can potentially employ millions of migrants. Investment in manufacturing and/or services is generating jobs through public, private, and community partnerships, such as private investments, government support, and microfinancing from BRAC and Grameen Bank. ICCCAD has formal agreements with many ministries and agencies including the Local Government Engineering Department (LGED), the agency for building and maintenance of rural infrastructure. ICCCAD has been working as an advisor and co-implementer of programs with all stakeholders, including mayors in two small towns in coastal Bangladesh, Mongla and Noapara (see the figure). It is helping town authorities in planning and implementing initiatives that are intended to be hospitable to incoming settlers, so that they can gradually be mainstreamed into citizenship ([ 6 ][7]). The process is based on a participatory, consultative process involving the municipal authorities, host community leaders, and settlers. The Strategy (NSMDCIID) includes options such as supporting livelihood for new settlers and skill development, both in displacement hotspots and in new settlements. Although these towns do not yet have adaptation plans as such, the programs consider risk-informed and socially conducive adaptation measures. BRAC with its Climate Bridge Fund is also currently implementing different programs in five cities: Khulna, Rajshahi, Satkhira, Barisal, and Sirajgonj. For programs under implementation in these cities, the target groups are incoming migrants, who crowd the slums. The activities undertaken in these cities are similar, with some specific activities in each town (see the figure). Most of the new settlers have moved from rural areas rendered inhospitable as a consequence of slow and sudden-onset climate impacts. ICCCAD started facilitating this program 3 years ago with a strategy of learning by doing. Among the lessons learned: (i) Vibrant economic activities in these rapidly growing towns are absorbing increasing numbers of migrants from vulnerable hotspots, and (ii) migrants with energy and agency are engaging themselves in different small businesses, with government support and microcredits from Grameen Bank and BRAC. The fact that an overwhelming share of those displaced by climate change around the world resettle internally indicates that adaptation in-country is the most viable option. The global community dealing with disaster displacement, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), primarily recommends this option. However, it requires adequate international support, which developed countries are obligated to deliver (with the language “shall provide”) under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement. Unfortunately, adaptation finance continues to remain the “poor cousin” of mitigation, the ratio remaining 20:80 despite repeated pledges by developed countries and agencies. For domestic resource mobilization, some countries (for example, Fiji) have introduced an adaptation levy on all goods and services produced and consumed in the country. There are limits to relocation in-country; sudden and slow-onset events sometimes trigger cross-border movement of individuals seeking jobs and protection. The UN Commission on Human Rights argues for looking at such mobility from a human-rights perspective (i.e., the space for realizing the basic human rights of livelihood, health, housing, etc.). Currently, those displaced by climate change suffer an international protection deficit, not qualifying as “refugees” under the 1951 Geneva Convention. Consideration of those displaced by climate change began in 2008 under the UNFCCC, with research and advocacy. The Cancun Adaptation Framework (Decision 1./CP16, paragraph 14f ) provides for different types of climate-induced human mobility (displacement, migration, and planned relocation), different scales of mobility (national, regional, and international), and different actions (research, cooperation, and coordination). This decision recognized migration as an adaptation strategy. The Nansen Initiative in 2011–2012 focused on promoting research and planned relocation. The Paris Agreement established a Task Force on Displacement under the Warsaw International Mechanism, with mandates to make recommendations for averting, minimizing, and addressing climate change–induced displacement. Finally, the Global Compact on Safe, Orderly, Regular and Responsive Migration was adopted in 2018 as the first multilateral framework to cooperate on migration, including in response to climate change. Many major countries and think tanks started looking at climate displacement through a lens of national security, with its characterization as a “threat multiplier,” and a number of nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement refer to those displaced by climate change as potentially fueling national and regional conflicts ([ 7 ][8]). However, climate security can be looked at either from a conflict perspective or from a lens of vulnerability-focused human and global security ([ 8 ][9]). The “conflict view” proponents call for closing the borders, but still the result of such a policy ends up being a humanitarian disaster, caused primarily by actions beyond the control of those being displaced or of their home countries. Should we see more of these displaced and disgruntled youth as victims in the hands of human traffickers? If not, we then argue—viewing this displacement in terms of vulnerability-focused human security—that planned relocation internationally can be an effective way forward under paragraph 14f of the Cancun agreement. As multilateral processes are typically very cumbersome and painstakingly slow, bilateral action can be more rapid and effective, and may then gradually feed into regional and global initiatives. For example, the Seasonal Migrant Worker Program in Australia and New Zealand, or New Zealand's Climate Visa Program ([ 9 ][10]), attract migrants from the Pacific Small Island States (although these initiatives are not solely meant for absorbing migrants displaced by climate change). Canada and the United States offered immigration opportunities to typhoon Haiyan victims, but these were based on kinship relations ([ 10 ][11]). Although the EU does not have a common policy, Finland and Sweden changed their earlier liberal policies on climate-induced displacement after the refugee influx from Syria ([ 11 ][12]). There are also provisions of circular migration, as between Spain and Colombia. The IOM continues recommending such migration between developed and developing countries as an adaptation response to climate-induced vulnerability. The Bangladesh Strategy recommends such options as well. Many developed countries already suffer from demographic deficits, with negative growth, and increasingly aging cohorts. The rhetoric in many of these counties, which often is anti-immigrant, cannot change the reality that these countries will need more and more young and skilled labor. Using projected needs of specific skills, developed countries could thus enter into bilateral agreements with climate-vulnerable countries, where those displaced by climate change may be trained in jointly supported educational and training institutions, either for permanent or for circular migration. For example, under the “Triple Win” program, Germany recruits nurses from Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and the Philippines to meet their nursing shortage, while reducing unemployment and contributing to economic development in the countries of origin ([ 12 ][13]). It is only just and fair for developed-country emitters of greenhouse gases to take some responsibility under Article 3.1 of the UNFCCC for their disproportionate contributions to generating this increasing number of people displaced by climate change. Lessons suggest that migration to rich countries can have strong positive impacts on labor market, GDP growth, and public revenue for host countries ([ 13 ][14], [ 14 ][15]). Mig ration is also typically positive for countries of origin, through remittance, transfer of technology, skills, domestic consumption and GDP growth, housing, children's education, and more. In 2017, low- and middle-income countries received more than $466 billion in remittances, three times the amount of official aid ([ 15 ][16]). This presents an important indicator of the effects that bilateral agreements on migration of climate-displaced people may have on promoting many different Sustainable Development Goals. Such migration should be framed as a win-win option, not as climate humanitarianism ([ 10 ][11]). The Bangladesh Strategy (NSMDCIID) argues for creating “opportunities for international labor migration by one or few members of families from the displacement hotspots” (p. 115). Older and underage family members and spouses can stay behind and rebuild their lives with remittance support. We believe this option of selective, not wholesale, relocation as a pragmatic policy can be scaled gradually, as warranted by projected demands of skills over time in developed countries. This relocation is based on bilateral planning and preparation, unlike the conventional, voluntary migration of skilled labor to industrial countries. This option is challenging, though mutually rewarding. However, acceptance of this proposal by Western democracies depends on whether they are ready to embrace and enjoy more of “smart/pooled” sovereignty, with enlightened self-interests under climate-induced vulnerability interdependence, rather than holding on to a centuries-old “Westphalian” model of a zero-sum game in global cooperation. Many have argued that with the increasing number of global commons problems, we now live in a positive-sum world. But such a paradigm shift warrants a vigorous campaign to raise awareness among citizens in industrial countries about the “new normal” of increasing extreme and ever-growing slow-onset events. Those citizens and politicians must face the lead and obligatory responsibility their countries have assumed under the international climate regime to support adaptation in vulnerable countries. Such awareness must confront and overcome the xenophobia and anti-immigration sentiments that often surface in many countries, inhibiting the enjoyment of mutual dividends, which can contribute to real and sustainable global peace and security. Successful implementation of the two options raised above (migrant-friendly towns and bilateral agreements for international migration) could help to germinate coordinated implementation, as stipulated in the Cancun agreement, of global policy frameworks on climate change (UNFCCC), disaster risk reduction (Sendai Framework), and human migration (Global Compact for Migration). As many ideas and actions on planned internal or international relocation of climate change–induced displacement are relatively new in the national and global policy domains, continued research and science-policy interface are essential in order to determine the feasibility, efficacy, and scalability of these options. 1. [↵][17]1. K. Rigaud et al ., “Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration” (World Bank, 2018). 2. [↵][18]1. H. Singh, 2. J. Faleiro, 3. T. Anderson, 4. S. Vashist , “Costs of Climate Inaction Displacement and Distress Migration” (Actionaid, 2020). 3. [↵][19]1. J. Carmin, 2. D. Roberts, 3. I. Anguelovski , “Planning Climate Resilient Cities: Early Lessons from Early Adapters” (2011), pp. 5–8. 4. [↵][20]1. S. Weerasinghe et al ., “Planned Relocation, Disasters and Climate Change: Consolidating Good Practices and Preparing for the Future” (UNHCR, 2014). 5. [↵][21]1. B. Mallick, 2. K. G. Rogers, 3. Z. Sultana , Ambio 10.1007/s13280-021-01552-8 (2021). 6. [↵][22]1. S. S. Alam, 2. S. Huq, 3. F. Islam, 4. H. M. A. Hoque , “Building Climate-Resilient, Migrant-Friendly Cities and Towns” (International Centre for Climate Change and Development, 2018). 7. [↵][23]1. E. Wright, 2. D. Tänzler, 3. L. Rüttinger , “Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Responding via Climate Change Adaptation Policy” (German Environment Agency, 2020). 8. [↵][24]1. M. R. Khan , Toward a Binding Climate Change Adaptation Regime: A Proposed Framework (Routledge, 2014), chapter 6. 9. [↵][25]1. H. Dempster , “New Zealand's ‘Climate Refugee’ Visas: Lessons for the Rest of the World” (Centre for Global Development, Washington, DC, 2020). 10. [↵][26]1. D. M. S. Matias , Clim. Change 160, 143 (2020). [OpenUrl][27] 11. [↵][28]1. A. Kraler, 2. K. Caitlin, 3. M. Wagner , “Climate Change and Migration: Legal and Policy Challenges and Responses to Environmentally-Induced Migration” (European Union, 2020). 12. [↵][29]German Development Agency, “Sustainable Recruitment of Nurses (Triple Win)” (2019); [www.giz.de/en/worldwide/41533.html][30]. 13. [↵][31]1. E.-j. Quak , “The effects of economic integration of migrants on the economy of host countries” (Institute of Development Studies, London, 2016). 14. [↵][32]1. V. Grossmann , “How Immigration Affects Investment and Productivity in Host and Home Countries” (IZA, 2016); . 15. [↵][33]World Bank, “Record high remittances to low- and middle-income countries in 2017” (2018); [www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/04/23/record-high-remittances-to-low-and-middle-income-countries-in-2017][34]. 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Five IoT trends to shape our near future

#artificialintelligence

For instance, Ericsson predicts in the latest Mobility Report that by the end of 2019 there will be 1.3 billion cellular IoT connections worldwide. By 2025 this number is expected to jump to 5 billion. Meanwhile, McKinsey estimates* that the economic value to be generated by IoT globally will amount to $3.9–11.1 trillion per year by 2025, and a focus in 2020 and beyond will be connectivity driving valuable outcomes. As enterprises become "digitized" and enable more connected machines, sensors and solutions, the current computing power done in the cloud simply won't be fast enough to optimize performance in real-time. In order to monitor, analyze and optimize connected IoT applications, enterprises will need computing power done near the edge.


Full text of the G20 Osaka leaders' declaration

The Japan Times

We will work together to foster global economic growth, while harnessing the power of technological innovation, in particular digitalization, and its application for the benefit of all. We are resolved to build a society capable of seizing opportunities, and tackling economic, social and environmental challenges, presented today and in the future, including those of demographic change. This recovery is supported by the continuation of accommodative financial conditions and stimulus measures taking effect in some countries. However, growth remains low and risks remain tilted to the downside. Most importantly, trade and geopolitical tensions have intensified. We will continue to address these risks, and stand ready to take further action. Fiscal policy should be flexible and growth-friendly while rebuilding buffers where needed and ensuring debt as a share of GDP is on a sustainable path. Monetary policy will continue to support economic activity and ensure price stability, consistent with central banks' mandates. Central bank decisions need to remain well communicated.


Ocean temperatures rising faster than previously...

Daily Mail - Science & tech

The world's oceans are rising in temperature faster than previously believed as they absorb most of the world's growing climate-changing emissions, scientists said Thursday. Ocean heat - recorded by thousands of floating robots - has been setting records repeatedly over the last decade, with 2018 expected to be the hottest year yet, displacing the 2017 record, according to an analysis by the Chinese Academy of Sciences. That is driving sea level rise, as oceans warm and expand, and helping fuel more intense hurricanes and other extreme weather, scientists warn. The world s oceans are rising in temperature faster than previously believed as they absorb most of the world's growing climate-changing emissions, scientists have said. Ocean heating is critical marker of climate change because an estimated 93 percent of the excess solar energy trapped by greenhouse gases accumulates in the world's oceans.


Google News

#artificialintelligence

The European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker has urged the UK to "clarify its position" on Brexit as soon as possible "so we can get on with it. Nigel Farage accuses David Cameron and Boris Johnson of'backsliding' on Brexit German leaders furious at UK's reluctance to invoke Article 50 Diane Abbott stands by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn as he addresses supporters outside parliament. "Don't let Scotland down," SNP urges EU parliament BRUSSELS, June 28 (Reuters) - Scotland voted to remain in the European Union last week and is counting on help from the EU to protect it from Brexit, a pro-independence Scottish lawmaker said on Tuesday, winning a standing ovation in the European ... Brexit: Asian leaders ready stimulus packages after Britain's vote to leave EU The Brexit vote continues to reverberate in Japan and other Asian financial centres. The European Commission in Ireland has moved to calm concerns that English may no longer be an official language at the European Union. England vs Iceland: Gary Lineker labels Euro 2016 loss'the worst in our history' while Alan Shearer wants England job Playing a country which boasts a population of little over 320,000 people, England were expected to cruise past Iceland and set-up a Euro 2016 quarter-final clash against tournament hosts France, but it wasn't to be. MOSCOW (AP) - The spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday it will take time to mend ties with Turkey after the November downing of a Russian military jet. ANKARA/JERUSALEM, June 28 (Reuters) - Turkey and Israel signed a deal on Tuesday to restore ties after a six-year rift, formalising an agreement which U.N. Lebanon's army has detained more than 100 Syrians for entering the country illegally following a series of suicide bombings in a border village. Victor Jara was killed in 1973 in the opening days of the dictatorship of Gen Augusto Pinochet. UKIP leader Nigel Farage was booed in the European Parliament as he called on the EU to take a "grown up and sensible" attitude to negotiations with the UK while at the same time insulting MEPs, claiming virtually none of them have ever done a "proper ... Let's not stop at Brexit.